Newly released FBI documents show the bureau anticipated potential political violence tied to the 2020 election months before the January 6 Capitol attack, raising questions about what federal authorities knew and how they responded.
FBI Director Kash Patel turned over the documents to Congress, which detail a 2020 internal exercise exploring scenarios involving a disputed presidential election and widespread unrest. The memos reveal the FBI was actively assessing threats from domestic extremist groups and foreign actors well before Election Day.
What the Documents Show
The FBI’s Boston Field Office conducted a tabletop exercise in mid-2020 to evaluate how violence might unfold if election results were contested. The analysis concluded that threats tied to the election were likely to increase as the vote approached, including risks to candidates, political events, and government institutions.
Intelligence assessments indicated that China, Iran, and Russia could attempt to exploit a disputed election by encouraging unrest through online influence operations. “The FBI assesses domestic violent extremist threats related to the 2020 elections likely will increase,” one memo stated, warning that election-related tensions could trigger broader instability.
In addition to threat assessments, the memos outlined strategies the FBI considered to counter potential violence. These included expanding the use of confidential human sources, embedding informants within potentially dangerous groups, and pursuing aggressive legal action against minor criminal activity as a deterrent.
FBI’s Presence on January 6
Separate disclosures revealed details about the FBI’s presence during the Capitol breach. The bureau acknowledged that approximately 274 plainclothes agents were in the crowd that day, along with dozens of confidential human sources.
A 2024 report from the Department of Justice’s Office of Inspector General said it found no evidence of FBI undercover agents embedded in the crowds, though it confirmed the presence of informants. The distinction between “undercover agents” and “plainclothes personnel” has become a point of debate among observers.
Congressional Questions
Lawmakers reviewing the newly released memos raised questions about whether earlier warnings were adequately communicated to security officials responsible for protecting the Capitol. Rep. Barry Loudermilk said the documents suggest the FBI had enough information to anticipate the risk of an attack but did not take sufficient steps to prevent it.
“This document is evidence that the FBI predicted the possibility of an attack on the Capitol,” Loudermilk said, arguing that the intelligence should have prompted stronger preventive measures.
Ongoing Scrutiny
The FBI materials are likely to fuel continued scrutiny of federal law enforcement’s role before, during, and after January 6. The memos highlight the complexity of managing domestic security threats in a politically charged environment, where intelligence warnings must be balanced with operational decisions.
Thousands of individuals were charged in connection with the riot, including cases involving misdemeanor offenses such as trespassing. The documents add to ongoing debates about how the federal government responded to January 6 in its aftermath.
This story has been updated. CNN’s national security team contributed to this report.
