State Rep. Steve Toth unseated four-term U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the Republican primary for Texas’s 2nd Congressional District on March 17, marking a significant upset with national implications.
The race had evolved into a proxy battle over the ideological direction of the Republican Party. Toth ran as a MAGA-aligned conservative, arguing that Crenshaw had drifted from grassroots priorities.
The Victory
With most precincts reporting, Toth opened a decisive lead and declared victory hours before the result was formally confirmed by the Associated Press. The outcome effectively ends Crenshaw’s congressional career, barring an unforeseen political return.
Toth will be the heavy favorite to win the Houston-area seat in November, as the district leans reliably Republican. “Congressional District 2 voters want a representative in D.C. who will stand firm in his convictions, fight for his constituents, and follow through on his promises,” Toth said in a statement.
Crenshaw’s Path to Defeat
Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL who lost an eye in combat, had typically cleared primaries with double-digit margins since first being elected in 2018. Despite outraising Toth by approximately $1.3 million, he was unable to overcome mounting dissatisfaction among conservative activists.
The incumbent faced criticism for comments rejecting claims of widespread election fraud in 2020. “It was always a lie. The whole thing was always a lie,” Crenshaw said in a 2022 interview, remarks that alienated segments of the GOP base.
Crenshaw also faced backlash over insufficient loyalty to President Donald Trump, who did not endorse him in the primary. Critics questioned his congressional stock trading and political accountability.
The Broader Implications
Sen. Ted Cruz and Turning Point Action, a national grassroots organization aligned with the party’s right flank, backed Toth. His campaign framed the race as a referendum on “establishment Republicanism” versus a populist, America First approach.
Following his defeat, Crenshaw attributed the result to online misinformation and clickbait. “Too many people are not discerning through the clickbait,” Crenshaw told the Texas Tribune.
Whether the upset signals a broader pattern in Texas politics remains unclear, but the primary outcome marks one of the most consequential Republican shakeups of the 2026 cycle.
This story has been updated. CNN’s political team contributed to this report.
